Las Vegas’ Pete Carroll experiment bottomed out so badly that it handed the Raiders a miserable 3-14 record last season. Everyone in Sin City, however, is acutely aware that the implosion sealed the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft and, with it, the most polished quarterback prospect to enter the league in years. Fernando Mendoza is coming. The question nobody at Allegiant Stadium is willing to answer honestly just yet is whether he’s arriving at the right place — or walking into the same trap that swallowed three consecutive QB1s before him.

Fernando Mendoza’s Impending Vegas Arrival

Here’s where we actually stand. Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 overall isn’t a projection. It’s as likely as night following day. As the sun rising in the east. As certain as both death and taxes.

Mendoza’s 2025 season will go down in history. He led the Indiana Hoosiers to a fairytale National Championship last season, despite being listed as 100/1 outsiders before the campaign got underway. His 182.9 passer rating, 41:6 touchdown-to- interception ratio, and 72.0% completion rate saw him secure the Heisman Trophy at a canter.

And for anyone who needed a live demonstration of his ceiling, the Rose Bowl provided it: the future Raider completed 87.5% of his throws for three touchdowns and a 250.2 passer rating in a 38-3 obliteration of Alabama — of Ty Simpson specifically — on the biggest stage college football offers. He’s earned every superlative attached to his name.

The Curious Case of Ty Simpson

Then there’s Ty Simpson. Consensus QB2, yes — but the situation around him is genuinely murky in a way that makes this comparison volatile from the opening snap. Only 15 starts throughout a four-year college career, and he spent the first three of those years backing up Bryce Young and then Jalen Milroe.

An 8.9% drop rate cratered his raw numbers late in the season, even as drop-adjusted accuracy metrics suggest the gap between him and Mendoza is narrower than that Rose Bowl scoreline implies. Top-30 visits with the Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Steelers, with Arizona hoping he falls to them against the top of the second round. His landing spot remains the most consequential unknown in the entire class, and one look at the latest betting odds confirms it.

The bookies have the Cardinals listed as the +130 favorites to land his signature, with the Jets just behind at +225. Then, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, come the Rams at +600, with Simpson perhaps being seen as the long-term heir to reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, with the Browns (+750) and Steelers (+850) slightly further back. This is precisely the kind of multi-team market where a popular online betting tool can earn its keep.

With five credible suitors and odds ranging from +130 all the way out to +850, there is real potential for the bookmakers to have mispriced one of the mid-range options. Run the Browns or Steelers through the expected value betting calculator at Thunderpick with your own probability estimate and see whether the longer prices are hiding genuine value. This kind of calculator can help you spot possibilities that might otherwise be clouded in the noise surrounding the situation, making it ideal to explore.

But while Simpson’s potential landing place is a huge talking point, there is another genuine question mark surrounding both him and Mendoza, specifically whether the QB2 can once again outperform the QB1 in his rookie year. And if recent history is anything to go by, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.

Stroud Over Young — 2023

The Panthers surrendered significant draft capital to move up for Bryce Young, a two- time Heisman finalist (winning in 2021) whose diminutive 5’10”, 204-pound frame drew private concerns that scouts publicly dismissed as irrelevant to his generational talent evaluation. C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, slipped to No. 2 with the Texans while draft analysts debated his Wonderlic score and questioned whether his Ohio State production was system-dependent. In the pair’s rookie year, the consensus was settled.

Young was a franchise cornerstone, Stroud a quality runner-up. It wasn’t particularly close — albeit in the wrong direction entirely. Stroud delivered 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 100.8 passer rating across 15 games — the fourth qualifying rookie quarterback in NFL history to crack the century mark — set a 470-yard single-game record against Tampa Bay in Week 9, and dragged the Texans to the NFC South crown and the playoffs against all odds.

Young produced 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, a 73.7 rating, and a 2- 15 Carolina catastrophe that eventually ended with a benching behind the veteran Andy Dalton in Year 2. The Panthers’ dysfunction was real. So was the 73.7 passer rating.

Daniels Over Williams — 2024

Caleb Williams entered the 2024 draft carrying Patrick Mahomes comparisons before he’d taken a single NFL snap. Two-time Heisman finalist, winning the first of them. Conventional size. An arm that scouts described as special. The Bears landing him at No. 1 felt franchise-altering. Jayden Daniels was elite in his own right — denying Williams a second straight Heisman months before the draft— but questions about deep-ball sustainability and dual-threat longevity kept him clearly framed as the consensus QB2.

Here’s the part that doesn’t get enough scrutiny: Daniels faced dysfunction in Washington. The Commanders weren’t the Chiefs. He delivered anyway — 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a 100.1 passer rating, and an NFC Championship run that made the Commanders relevant for the first time in decades. Williams posted 3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, an 87.8 rating — solid work undermined by Bears dysfunction and an offensive line that offered him nothing.

Dart Over Ward — 2025

Cam Ward left Miami as the overwhelming No. 1 — elite arm talent, improvisational brilliance, the kind of fearlessness that makes defensive coordinators uncomfortable. The Titans took him at the top of the board, with Shedeur Sanders expected to be scooped up not far behind. Instead, however, “Legendary” slid all the way to the fifth round and pick 144 in one of the biggest draft shockers of all time, while the Giants traded back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart at 25 overall. What an inspired decision that turned out to be.

The former Ole Miss sensation began the 2025 season third on the Giants’ depth chart behind both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, labeled developmental, expected to watch and wait. He seized the starting role in Week 4 after an 0-3 disaster and never looked back — 2,272 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, plus 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns that set a Giants franchise record and ranked third-most by any rookie quarterback in NFL history.

Ward, across 17 starts, absorbed a league-high 55 sacks behind an offensive line that should have faced criminal charges, and finished with 3,169 yards, 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and an 80.2 passer rating. Per start, per efficiency, per situation — Dart was the clear winner. Margin over domination. But the trend held.

Three consecutive classes. Three straight QB2 victories over their more illustrious classmate. Will Mendoza end the curse in 2026? We’re about to find out.