The NFL Coach of the Year award rarely crowns the boss of the best team. It finds the leader who defies low expectations, often with a new quarterback or fresh approach. For 2025, Ben Johnson (Bears), Mike Vrabel (Patriots), and Liam Coen (Jaguars) dominate early talk. Their teams finished 2024 with just 5, 4, and 4 wins, respectively. Significant improvement from that baseline is the key to their candidacies. Let’s break down their chances.

Award for Exceeding Expectations

The Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year award carries the most prestige. Media voters consistently reward the coach whose team makes the loudest positive noise relative to preseason predictions. Guiding a team expected to struggle into playoff contention is the golden ticket. First-year head coaches have a strong recent record, winning four of the last six awards before Kevin O’Connel won in 2025. Injuries and perceived talent gaps also boost a candidacy. Voters ask: Which coach maximized the potential of their roster? The answer usually points to the biggest positive swing in the standings.

Checking Out The Early Betting Lines

Current odds (as of August 11, 2025) reflect belief in turnarounds. Ben Johnson (+650) leads the field, followed closely by Mike Vrabel (+750). Liam Coen (+1400) sits further back but his odds are notably short for a rookie head coach. Other contenders include Aaron Glenn (+1300, Jets) and Pete Carroll (+1400, Raiders). To monitor how these odds evolve and new bonus offers, you should check at Covers regularly throughout the season. 

Johnson’s odds dropped from +800 post-hiring, showing growing confidence. Vrabel is viewed as his main rival. Coen’s position signals real optimism about his Jacksonville impact. These lines highlight the three coaches seen as having the clearest path to dramatically exceeding expectations.

Ben Johnson Igniting Chicago’s Offense

Johnson arrives, hailed as an offensive mastermind. His Lions offense led the NFL in points (30.1) and yards (402.2) per game over 2023-2024. He inherits a 5-12 Bears team and 2024’s top pick, QB Caleb Williams. Chicago rebuilt its offensive line, signing guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson. They drafted TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III. 

Johnson’s system demands change similar to the Deion Sanders Effect. The Bears used shotgun 70.8% in 2024, Johnson’s Lions just 44.0%. He aims to fix Williams’ sacks through strategy and quicker decisions. If the Bears leap to playoff contention, fueled by Williams under Johnson, his case is strong. But the NFC North is tough. Can Williams adapt fast enough?

Mike Vrabel Reviving New England

Vrabel, a Patriots dynasty player, aims to restore a winning culture. He won the 2021 COTY award with Tennessee after a 12-5 season using an NFL-record 91 players. His Titans consistently overachieved. He takes over a Patriots squad that has managed only four wins each of the last two seasons. Second-year QB Drake Maye threw 15 INTs in 13 games. Vrabel demands Maye become a reliable leader. 

New England spent big, acquiring WR Stefon Diggs, DL Milton Williams, LB Harold Landry III, and CB Carlton Davis III. They drafted LT Will Campbell and RB TreVeyon Henderson. Vrabel’s “Bully Ball” philosophy injects toughness. Despite recent woes, they face the league’s third-easiest schedule. Jumping from four wins under a beloved former player is a potent COTY story. The AFC East challenge and Maye’s growth are key variables.

Liam Coen Provides Jacksonville’s Offensive Spark

Coen steps into his first NFL head coaching role with offensive credentials. His lone season as Tampa Bay’s coordinator in 2024 was historic. The Bucs finished top five in yards (399.6), scoring (29.5), passing (250.4), and rushing (149.2). They were the first NFL team to complete 70% of passes and average over 5.0 yards per carry. Baker Mayfield set career highs under Coen. He takes on a Jaguars team that collapsed to 4-13 in 2024, with QB Trevor Lawrence limited to 10 starts by injury. 

Coen’s task is to unlock Lawrence and fix “self-inflicted wounds,” emphasizing discipline. Talent exists with WR Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way rookie Travis Hunter. If Coen installs his efficient system quickly, sparking Lawrence and a playoff push, he’ll be in the mix. Turning a 4-win team around with a rejuvenated QB is classic COTY material. But stepping into the top job for the first time brings inherent questions.

Why These Three?

Johnson, Vrabel, and Coen have some real perks going for them. With their teams’ low 2024 win totals (5, 4, 4), they’ve got a pretty clear starting point. Even a little progress would make a noticeable difference. Plus, each coach has a young QB picked early in the draft (Williams, Maye, Lawrence) who really needs to step up, and helping them do that would strengthen their case. Significant offseason investments (Chicago’s line/weapons, New England’s veterans, Jacksonville’s talent) provide support. Their narratives are each compelling in their own way. Voters love a good story backed by wins.

The season schedule is already making big waves on social media. It hinges on wins materializing, quarterbacks thriving, and these coaches proving they turned the tide. The early odds point to Johnson, Vrabel, and Coen having the clearest shot at the 2025 sideline crown.