We are officially deep into the 2025 NFL season, and Week 11 is poised to deliver the kind of high-stakes, chaotic action that defines this league. While the current betting lines clearly favor several teams, the smart money knows that the NFL routinely delivers shocking upsets every single Sunday. Indeed, action and unpredictability is at the forefront of every NFL game.

This week, multiple underdogs present compelling cases built on favorable matchups, recent momentum shifts, or deep-seated divisional desperation. Whether they make it or not, the odds these underdogs have are worth checking out. With that said, it’s time to move past superficial records and identify the high-value candidates most likely to smash expectations and torpedo your office pool.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Carolina Panthers, currently holding a respectable 5-5 record, are getting 3.5 points on the road against their NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons. This matchup is a classic example of an underdog’s strength meeting a favorite’s weakness, the perfect formula for an upset. Carolina’s offensive success this season is heavily concentrated in their aggressive running game, which features the consistent production of Rico Dowdle and the speed of Chuba Hubbard.

In sharp contrast, the Atlanta Falcons’ defense has shown a serious vulnerability against the run, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing yards surrendered per game (124.4) through the first half of the season. This glaring mismatch provides the Panthers with an opportunity to establish control early, dominate the time of possession, and keep the Falcons’ explosive offense, led by Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, sidelined. If quarterback Bryce Young can successfully manage the game and Carolina’s defensive front contains Atlanta’s rushing attack, the Panthers are perfectly positioned to grind out a tough divisional win.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Getting a generous 5.5 points on the road in a bitter AFC North rivalry game against the Pittsburgh Steelers makes the Cincinnati Bengals a compelling underdog play in NFL week 11. This divisional matchup is notoriously tight and physically brutal, which typically compresses the actual margin of victory regardless of a team’s current record or standing. The Steelers,

while having a winning season, are currently relying on an offense that often struggles to maintain a consistent attack and rarely puts up high-scoring numbers.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing at home and are listed as 3-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers. This line feels significantly too short given the recent developments on the Chargers’ offensive line. The Chargers have been plagued by offensive line instability all season, having fielded numerous starting combinations, including losing their starting left tackle, Rashawn Slater, and replacement Joe Alt, to season-ending injuries earlier this year.

This lack of continuity upfront creates a critical vulnerability for the Chargers, especially on the road. The Jaguars’ defense is perfectly constructed to capitalize on this instability, with elite pass-rushers to consistently pressure quarterback Justin Herbert.

While the Jaguars’ offense has been inconsistent at times, scoring on only a modest percentage of their drives, their defense is fully capable of disrupting the Chargers’ timing and turning their powerful offense into a sputtering unit. If Jacksonville’s offense can protect the ball and the defense can feast on a compromised Chargers’ line, a home-field upset victory is a strong possibility for the Jaguars, easily covering the 3-point spread.

The Bengals, despite their 3-6 record, have shown signs of life, benefiting from the veteran leadership of quarterback Joe Flacco, who is currently splitting practice reps with Joe Burrow, who was recently designated to return from injury. Flacco’s veteran presence and his willingness to test the field vertically can be the exact antidote to a Steelers secondary that is prone to giving up major plays at critical moments. Given the sheer competitiveness of the AFC North, and with the Steelers favored by nearly a touchdown, the Bengals are a great bet to keep the game within a field goal or secure a thrilling, rivalry-fueled upset victory on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Cleveland Browns are listed as a sizable 7.5-point home underdog against the formidable Baltimore Ravens, giving them one of the biggest cushions of the week, which makes this game immediately intriguing. This Week’s NFL Matchups on FanDuel have insights from the Ravens and Browns that show just how exciting this matchup is.

The Browns’ defense, despite the team’s challenging 2-7 record, remains an absolute juggernaut, featuring an elite defensive line among the most talented in the league.

Cleveland’s defense is perfectly capable of generating the consistent pressure needed to disrupt the timing of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ highly sophisticated offense in a way few other teams can.

The 7.5-point spread largely reflects the Browns’ offensive struggles, specifically their lack of a consistent, high-end quarterback and their turnover issues. However, in what is likely to be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest typical of AFC North football, a dominant, game-wrecking performance from the Browns’ front seven could easily keep the game within a single score, setting up a late-game scenario for a shocking home upset.

Don’t Trust the Favorites

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season has several red flags for favorites, reinforcing the lesson that no betting line should ever be taken for granted. From the Panthers targeting the Falcons’ run defense vulnerability to the Jaguars benefiting from the Chargers’ offensive line injuries, the week’s overarching narrative centers on underdogs exploiting specific structural mismatches. Desperation, bitter rivalry, and the emotional lift of a home crowd can often make a seemingly comfortable spread disappear in a matter of plays.